Cognos--Sagging or Just Lagging Support?

OK OK, nice double entendre I know, but since I'm the only Performance Guy posting these days (apparently there's this holiday called "Canada" Day that Nic is celebrating this weekend. Like that's real), and Pat's off somewhere reengineering cocktail processes.

So since the adults are away, let's continue our journey this week and shine the spotlight on another competitor in the peformance management space, our friends in Ottawa (speaking of this "Canada" Day celebration), Cognos.

Cognos announced their earnings this week, which was met with a collective gasp, cheer, or general yawn from the pundits on the market, depending on who you're reading. But the consensus seems to be settling around the main point of the AP article linked here, which points out that profit fell short, big deals fell short, and the go forward outlook was more conservative as well.

Now is this due to Oracle and SAP being more competitive? Not likely yet, as they, plus Business Objects, are still digesting acquisitions, so while there was certainly some short term pricing pressures on the part of the acquired vendors (the old "we don't want to raise prices but you never know what the new guys might do, they're CRAZY!" line of attack). But none more so than in past competitive quarters.

Is it a product portfolio issue? Again, it would not appear so. Cognos, as they are thisquick to point out ALWAYS, has been LIGHTYEARS ahead of everyone in the market on performance management. And in many respects they're right, although not really against Hyperion, and if you count the redundant consolidations and planning tools in house, I'm not sure it's quite as valid an argument, but as Mr. Glass house himself right now, I'll even give them a pass on this one.

Maybe it's market momentum? I have the personal opinion that the brand feels old, they've been hit with a lot of sales and product management departures, maybe it's just an execution issue? Whatever it is, they're not letting on, but the cracks in the armor are starting to show, and for the first time in months, the stock price fell below Business Objects price.
Now don't everyone shoot me on what stock price actually indicates, I'm not an idiot (Pat and Nic don't respond), but if you had $40 extra dollars today, and you could invest in 1 share of both Business Objects and Cognos, you'd have an equal choice--and that's a newer development.

So I believe that all is not right in the Great White North these days, and the unease you feel eminating from the recent earnings call is not imagined. It will be interesting to see how they turn this around given the rapidly changing dynamics of the market.