Process is the New BI

Is BI growing up, getting paid up, or maybe just getting passed up? Depends on who you ask, and what seat they occupy. At a minimum, there is activity on all fronts.

BI is all grows up? You know you are a full adult when Microsoft decides you are a real market. All the cycles around Performance Point signal that the Redmond death star is now fully operational and now focused on market share. If you have a market cap like MSFT, everyone not named you in any chosen category has a market cap the size of the resistance organization. They are big, but nobody seems to be going home. In fact, there are multiple pockets of resistance. Do not be surprised if the Redmond BI team enlists the Master Chief, available tomorrow, to counter the resistance. Can't wait to get in on the road show. Other notes of interest...

Item #1, the fact that the upstart is getting press in your father's newspaper. On demand BI with LucidEra is validated in the Wall Street Journal Technology section. Check this article that talks about the value of BI and mentions Cognos, Business Objects and LucidEra. Note to LucidEra - forward the article back to VCs that funded the new round and declare mission accomplished. New money to fund marketing, new WSJ article. You do the math. It took Business Objects about 10 years to get in the Journal. Guess the new guys are on to something.

Item #2. Business Objects and Goldman - Let's make a deal. Are they for sale? If you ask executives at the company, probably not. At least not publicly. However, when someone shows up with an offer, you either take it, or your hire a firm to conduct a process. Just because nobody is shopping does not mean nobody is buying. Do not be surprised if they get bought. By the same token, do not be surprised if nothing happens. I heard a couple times last year that multiple people had it on good authority that Oracle tried to buy BOBJ when the stock was trading in the low 30s. I heard that got punted when Business Objects said the price started at $40 per share. Looks like a good position, especially considering the current cycles. This could go either way this year.

Item #3. Unsolicited offer for SAS. My understanding from a good source is that a player that matters showed up with an offer. The response back from SAS was, "Bidding starts at $20 Billion." $20 Billion?!? 10X+ trailing twelve month revenues? Goodnight indeed. If you spend 20 years building the company in your own image, hold the controlling shares, and live in a hot market, would you sell? File this one under the simulation scenarios you wish you had. My money is on team North Carolina holding firm and staying private.

Item #4. Forrester reminds people that BI needs to get actionable and mentions TIBCO as a thought leader. You have that right, TIBCO runs BI. Boris Evelson and Colin Teubner from Forrester put out a report last week titled, From BPM to Optimization. The subtitle notes that while "BI vendors fiddle while TIBCO burnishes its BPM offering with Spotfire." This is essentially like calling out BI vendors as unfit to parent, much like Brittany Spears. This makes TIBCO out to be K-FED. Nobody has seen them parent, but sometimes proximity wins you points by association. I happened to speak to someone in product management last week from Cognos who indicated that Spotfire was last seen on the street about 20 seconds before TIBCO purchased them. This makes them an excellent candidate for Cold Case, assuming anyone was interested and wanted to tune in to another Law and Order knock off on visualization and analytics purchased by a platform wanna be. Which begs the question, do BPM analysts at Forrester not get BI inquiries, so believe their own press? Or, is the BI market turning into process management market and the BI players are asleep at the switch? Note to Ottawa, Cary and San Jose - check your dashboards!

Regardless of how you score, BI is hot. Looks like we are in for an exciting end of year finish.