Did Oracle Just Trump SAP?

An interesting theory I was discussing with Performance Guy Nic this morning regarding the news that Oracle has made an unsolicited bid (now rebuffed) for BEA Systems of about $6.7B. This is not the first time Oracle has gone after its competitor in the middleware market, but with the internal turmoil at BEA right now, and the performance of the stock (not to mention the 13.2% stake held by Carl Icahn), the timing couldn't be better.

Now SAP is really on the defensive here, with so much cash and focus now tied up with a long integration with Business Objects, are they in a position to counter the Oracle bid? Not withstanding other competing bids that are likely to come in for BEA now that there's an offer out there (IBM and HP come to mind), SAP may be left on the outside of this market if they let Oracle win.

Interestingly, what if this was Oracle's plan all along? Everyone knows of Oracle's interest in Business Objects throughout the year; what if they were making noises of varying degrees about being interested again with the intent of baiting SAP to make its move, all the while having no real intention to buy Business Objects, but having BEA as their main goal all along?

They saddle their nemesis with a lengthy and arduous integration and cash commitment, they scoop up a hugely competitive vendor and take over more of the infrastructure play, and SAP is again on the sidelines playing catch-up.

I'm just saying is all...